Saudi must recognise Israel to get US nuclear deal, says Trump
In a Nutshell:
- Donald Trump says the landmark US-Saudi civil nuclear deal will only be approved if Saudi Arabia recognises Israel by joining the Abraham Accords.
- The Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump in 2020, normalised Israel's ties with the UAE and Bahrain, with Sudan and Morocco joining later.
- Saudi Arabia has not yet recognised Israel, making its decision central to both regional diplomacy and the future of the nuclear agreement.
Why it Matters
By tying nuclear cooperation to Saudi recognition of Israel, Washington has turned one of Riyadh's biggest strategic ambitions into diplomatic leverage. If Saudi Arabia agrees, it could trigger the biggest realignment in the Muslim world since the Abraham Accords.
What we think
Congress still has to approve the nuclear pact, giving Riyadh time and cover to neither accept nor reject the tie-in outright. The likeliest near-term outcome is continued ambiguity. Saudi officials reiterating the statehood precondition publicly, US officials insisting progress is “close,” and no signature before facts on the ground in Gaza/West Bank change meaningfully. This mirrors exactly the pattern of the last two years: momentum, shock event, retreat, repeat. Such a move could make it harder for the Muslim world to stay unified in Middle East. So, what will Saudi finally end up doing?
